Fealty and more in Virginia

On Tuesday, June 18, Virginia will hold a primary election. A congressional candidate, John McGuire, is attempting to turn his race into a referendum on fealty to Donald Trump.

McGuire, a state Senator and outspoken devotee of the Trump cult, is hoping to swipe the seat of U.S. Rep. Bob Good representing Virginia’s 5th district, a sprawling, mostly rural swath in the middle-western part of the state, home to smallish cities such as Lynchburg, Charlottesville, and Danville.

Good is one of the most hardcore right-wing members of the current dysfunctional Congress and serves as chair of the chaos-inducing Freedom Caucus. You’d think in a ruby red district like the 5th he’d be a shoo-in for reelection, except he made one disastrous blunder: he initially endorsed Ron DeSantis for President, leading Trump to label Good a back-stabber and endorse McGuire.

It would be hilarious — in a cynical, jaded way — to watch an effective right-wing soldier like Good get taken out for failing to always and everywhere bend the knee to Orange-dusted Dear Leader. Except, as usual, that narrative is too simple. It’s basically just a campaign strategy for McGuire.

There are other factors. For instance, Good has alienated many of his more moderate Republican colleagues in Congress, who are backing McGuire with bundles of cash. They blame Good for ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which led to a lot of embarrassing ineptitude. Although McGuire is as much of a right-wing hack as Good, they are hoping he will prove more manageable.

Good, meanwhile, is backed by other wackjobs in Congress, such as fellow coup-plotter Matt Gaetz. Yet the House’s most notorious wingnut, Marjorie Taylor Greene, an ally of the deposed McCarthy, is supporting McGuire.

McGuire, for his part, has alienated many of the local Republican officials in the 5th district, 25 of whom signed a letter to Trump asking the convicted felon to reconsider his endorsement. McGuire’s offense was promising, while he was running for state Senate last year, not to primary Good, then doing a shameless 180 and announcing, within days of being elected, that he would challenge Good after all.

Which of these many factors will sway the district’s Republican primary voters? McGuire has raised more money and claims to be leading in polling he commissioned. It’s the first time 5th district Republicans will vote in a state-administered primary; previously, candidates (including Good) were chosen at party-run conventions, where voter turnout was much lower than it’s expected to be on Tuesday. So there are a lot of wildcards in this race. I’m looking forward to seeing the results.